Does God Exist?

With hopes of avoiding a religious debate (I think some of my return readers understand my feeling on organized religion) I’d like to express my thoughts, in a condensed way, on the subject.

When I think about the possibility of there being a "God" (not necessarily in a religious context; it’s just easier to use that phrase), I try to think about it from a logical perspective. For example, I break the belief down to a basic question.

You have to ask yourself which is more likely: At some point, for no real reason, something created itself from absolute nothingness or something has always existed and that something created what we know.

In my opinion, it is more likely that something has always existed, in some form, rather than the concept that everything we know, as reality, just decided to materialize itself from nothing. In order to believe that the existence of "God" is a complete lie, you have to, in turn, accept the fact that every universe, in every dimension, came into existence for no reason.

To me, that doesn’t make sense. A supreme being doesn’t make too much sense either, but I have to conclude that it is far more likely. Perhaps the premise of my question is all wrong... but I don’t think it is. In the very end of all the debate, it comes down to whether you believe that something as complex as reality can create itself from nothingness. I'm not willing to take that leap...